audio version of the segment here > Will 2026 be a blue tsunami year? Experts don't think so
Jay Weber Show transcript 12-11-25
We’ve been talking about redistricting. The Supreme Court just allowed Texas’ new maps to be put into place which could mean republicans pick up five new congressional seats there, next fall.
However, in the same decision, the justices indicated that they’d probably let California’s new ‘redo’ of their maps stand…. meaning that the democrats would pick up five seats there.
They’ve just picked up one in Utah. Maybe Virginia redistricts and apparently their democrats could pick up another three democrat seats depending on how extreme the Virginia democrats wanted to get with their map…but Virginia isn’t a ‘given’ yet, when it comes to allowing for a redo.
And there aren’t any other real opportunities for democrats to redraw maps in the blue states, because most of them are already so heavily gerrymandered. In short: democrats have been cheating on the maps in the states they control-to such extremes- that they can’t be cheated anymore.
That leaves more opportunities for republicans to gain seats with redraws in Indiana, Ohio, Missouri, Florida, North Carolina…and if the supreme court rules in a Louisiana case in a manner that outlaws racial gerrymandering…the experts say it could force redrawn maps in Georgia, Louisiana, and maybe a few other red states. Wow.
This has elections analyst and expert Sean Trende of real clear politics confirming that- when this is all said and done…there could only be about ten. Ten. Truly competitive districts in the entire country next fall. here’s Trende on a podcast yesterday:
"If both sides do what they’re trying to do, there will be maybe 10 swing seats total remaining, and Democrats only need three," Trende told the RCP podcast on Tuesday.
"Virginia is going to try to redistrict. They’re going to put a constitutional amendment up probably in April. We don’t know if it would gain Democrats three or four seats, depending on how aggressive they want to be," Trende explained. "Florida will probably redistrict—another two or three seats in Republicans’ favor."
"The big unknown is still Louisiana v. Callais at the Supreme Court, which could strike down or severely limit Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act," Trende explained. "That’s another six or seven seats for Republicans. Total GOP net could be around 12 seats. But if Trump’s job approval is still in the 40s, I don’t think it matters—Democrats still take the House."
"But it does make it so the Democrats might have to win the popular vote by three or four points in order to take the House, which is not a great democratic norm. But these redistricting wars have been building for decades," Trende said.
This could be something I said the other day that the liberals scoffed at on social media: that these maps are so rigged to the extreme- in most states- that the era of the big ‘red or blue tsunami’ might be over….and…as for next fall…it is leaves it unlikely that we are going to see some 25 or 40 seat swing back toward the democrats.
Yes, democrats might win back control of the house and/or senate if it’s a good democrat year. The house is more likely than the senate. But, we are not likely to see some major shift, when numbers that has democrats magically holding the house by 30 or 40 seats again.
This is what the left and their accomplices in the media- want- to ‘see coming’. This is what they want to happen, and so it’s what the ‘less informed’ pundits and media members are talking themselves into believing: that there’s going to be some big 25 or 35 seats swing toward the democrat’s next fall. But, but, but TRUMP Okay…
But the reality is that big swings like that are probably lost to an earlier era, given how few competitive districts are really ‘left’ after the 2020 electoral maps were drawn and all of the ‘redo’s’ since.
Meanwhile- Florida’s governor, Ron DeSantis, and the lawmakers there are waiting for this Louisiana court ruling before they move forward.
That case is called ‘Louisiana versus Calais’....and it has to do with racial gerrymandering of the sort that -is- unconstitutional but has been allowed since the 1960s due to the voting rights act.
That act-in its time- was the way to ensure there was more minority representation in congress. It insisted that ‘majority minority’ districts needed to be created to give blacks, Hispanics, Asians…etc… a better chance at electing ‘one of theirs’ to congress. I know that’s a terrible way to phrase it, but that’s basically what it was. We Black people in…Milwaukee…want a Black person to represent us and our interests. Okay, under the voting rights act, you get the district that Gwen Moore is in now, etc. This occurred across the country.
Well, if the supreme court of this era says…that provision in the voting rights act is a relic of the past that is no longer serving a positive purpose. Or- even if it is- it was unconstitutional from the start and just needs to be ended.
Well then, Katie bar the door, as all sorts of red states move to end the racial game playing that was-forced- onto their states decades ago.
Folks, if republicans go into next fall with an additional six to twelve republican districts having been created…they do not! Lose control of the house by 15 or 20 seats…much less 25 or 40.
If democrats can manage to win back control of the house under those conditions..it will probably be by a single digit house advantage. As in: they’ll win it back by maybe five to ten seats.
I think you understand what I’m saying: the modern maps and gerrymanders have virtually eliminated the opportunities for either one side- or the other- to shock the system and pick up 25 to 40 seats in one fell swoop. It’s just not going to be happening-no matter how unpopular trump is. That’s the point I’d make.
Also-if we are on the topic- i thought I’d play a great moment on CNN yesterday….as former California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger slaps back jake tapper as Tapper tries to insist that this latest round of map making is just republican cheating. Republicans are cheating.
Arnie said basically…Jake, you are a dope. You need to look at history.
Arnie was governor when California lawmakers-and the citizenry- decided to move to a system where-in a ‘maps commission’ drew that state’s maps and gee, unlike the state of New York, California actually stuck with it for a while.
But they only did because the maps commission continued to give democrats a massive electoral advantage. And- then- the moment Gavin Newsom and California democrats say the ‘need’ to cheat again, on their maps, they tossed the maps commission created under Arnie into the trash…and decided to go back to the old way of more openly cheating.
That’s what we are seeing now with California. Quote…reacting…to the new maps in Texas that give republicans five more seats.
And I’m not saying Texas republicans and governor Greg Abbott didn’t further cheat their maps because they are the ones in control of that state. It’s silly to pretend that’s not the case.
However. At least Texas had an excuse to actually redraw their maps. The dept of justice had ordered them to due to an illegal racial gerrymander that had been found in them. So, at least Texas has an excuse to redraw their maps. And at least Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, etc....will have an ‘excuse’ to redraw their maps after a court ruling.
California’s democrats are just cheating because they feel the need to cheat. There’s no court order, or lawsuit, or any reason at all, to redraw their maps other than to counter what Texas is doing and cheat for their side of the aisle. Arnie’s right: the system that was set up was for the party who won power to draw the electoral maps for the state. And so, these sorts of partisan advantages and ‘cheating’ are built right into the system and have been going on for 250 years. Let’s not pretend that trump and republicans just invented Gerrymandering…or gerrymandering for extreme advantage. The farce that gives up the game is: most democrat states are already so ‘cheated to the extreme’ that the democrats controlling them today can’t cheat anymore.
When Massachusetts gets nine congressional seats and all nine are drawn to be safe democrat districts even though 40 percent of the residents in that state vote republican…. What do you call that other than ‘a cheat to the extreme’. Most blue states are already there.
It’s why supreme court cases present an opportunity for the republicans to finally play the same game. It’s also why- forgetting the midterms- the country seems to be trending more red.The mass migration out of the highly dysfunctional blue states is going to have them losing even more seats as red states gain them.
And longer term? We could see today’s extreme indoctrination and leftism on that side of the aisle- leading to a population dip among the left. It’s an interesting situation developing in which young liberal women aren’t having children at nearly the rate young conservative women are.
It has demographers saying that if conservative families keep growing and there are fewer children from liberal families who even exist…
well..if the democrats and leftists keep up their family-hating, child hating ways, they will actually be perpetuating a political suicide coming for their party.
photo credit: Getty Images
