The topic of President Trump's tariffs has the mainstream media and Democrats throwing temper tantrums for multiple weeks now. The idea of them is simple, and in theory, should work very well in the long run of the American economy. They encourage more American production and encourage more businesses to move here. It should result in an economic boom we have not seen in quite some time.
But so-called 'experts' have been pounding the same drum for months, that tariffs will essentially shatter the economy, and start a trade war. The latter of that expectation has happened, somewhat, but the tariffs have gotten Mexico and Canada to cave to most demands. That is the whole point of them. They are a bargaining chip to get America its fair share. Yet the screams of recession continue growing louder as the tariffs go into effect.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said recently the tariffs are worth it, even if a recession is to follow. But how does that work? How would a recession be good?
Jason W. Taylor, founder of Codelaunch.com, says a lot of this fear came about due to the low Atlanta Fed Forecast, but there was a reason for the numbers.
"Companies tried to front run tariffs. There was a lot of preordering and delivery that happened in January, and it showed up in their forecast...and when it was negative, that set everyone off," he says.
The President has been very open about the possibility of short-term pain from tariffs, as companies work around them, and begin buying American.
But recession means two straight quarters of negative GDP, which is unlikely to happen even with tariffs. IN addition to that, this kind of 'recession,' is not the kind you might be thinking. It is different.
"A recession caused by policy change is not the same as recession caused by lack of employment or job growth...it is two different types of recession," says Taylor. "It could be where we go in then out of recession, and everyone goes, 'huh? We were in a recession, now we are not? Okay.'"
The stock market showed some panic this week over tariffs, bottoming out two of those days. But that is not a bad thing. Market corrections are healthy and generally are not a sign the sky is falling.
Through all of that though, all the kicking, screaming, and stock market downturn, the plan is working.
"The rates have come down significantly...a whole half a point, down to 4.23 percent right now," says Taylor. "This is good for funding small business and borrowing of all types."
He adds that, down the road, this will lead to a healthier American economy.
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