It's no secret that Texas power demand is growing rapidly, due to AI data centers, crypto mines, and population growth. But the situation may be more dire than originally thought. A new ERCOT report projects a worst-case scenario where Texas power demand outpaces supply by as much as 6% as early as summer 2026. Some experts note the report is based on unreliable projections and assumptions. One energy analyst who spoke with the Texas Tribune even called the report "needlessly panic inducing."
Whether we run out of power in 2026 or not, there is no denying that energy demand in Texas is growing faster than supply. Gov. Greg Abbott says the state has increased its power supply by more than one-third in the last four years, but that's been barely enough to keep up with the growth in demand. "This is going to be a big issue for us," says Ed Hirs, energy fellow at the University of Houston. "The backlog for new natural gas power plants now extends out to 2029 or 2030."
"We've been behind the curve on this for many years, and it's not just the peak demand periods," he continues.
Hirs warns not only does the state need new power plants, but it must tend to existing ones. "Most of our coal-fired power plants are about 55 years old now, the natural gas plants average more than 30 years in age," he tells KTRH. "So we're finding ourselves running short on supply when plant operators have to take them offline to perform maintenance...which is happening more often because of their age."
With no easy solution, the state has ramped up most of its new supply with batteries that can better store existing power. Texas A&M is also developing small nuclear reactors that could be a new source in the future. Hirs would like to see more urgency from state leaders. "The state has not given the ERCOT market any provision for adding new capacity to the grid," he says. "This is a real problem, and it lies directly with the legislature and the governor."
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